ANALISIS DETERMINAN DEPOSITO MUDHARABAH PADA BANK PEREKONOMIAN RAKYAT SYARIAH (BPRS) DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2020-2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30651/jms.v11i4.32495Abstract
Abstrack
This study aims to analyze the determinants of mudharabah deposits at Islamic Rural
Banks (BPRS) in Indonesia for the period 2020–2024. The variables used include
Islamic Rate of Return, conventional bank deposit rates, inflation, and money supply,
using monthly secondary data across four deposit maturities — one month, three
months, six months, and twelve months. The analytical methods employed are the
Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) for one-month, three-month, and twelve
month maturities, and the Error Correction Model (ECM) for the six-month maturity.
The results indicate that the influence of the four variables is heterogeneous —
varying in direction and significance depending on the maturity and time horizon of
the analysis. Simultaneously, all four variables have a significant effect in the long run
but are not significant in the short run. Among the four variables, money supply is the
most dominant and consistent factor influencing mudharabah deposits across all
maturities in the long run, while the influence of the other variables is selective across
specific maturities and time horizons. These findings imply that depositors' decisions
to place funds cannot be explained by a single factor, but are influenced by a
combination of Islamic banking internal factors and macroeconomic conditions that
operate differently across each maturity segment.
Keywords: Mudharabah Deposits, Islamic Rate of Return, Deposit Interest Rate,
Inflation, Money Supply, BPRS
Abstrak
Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis determinan deposito mudharabah pada Bank
Perekonomian Rakyat Syariah (BPRS) di Indonesia periode 2020–2024. Variabel
yang digunakan meliputi Islamic Rate of Return, suku bunga deposito bank umum
konvensional, inflasi, dan jumlah uang beredar, dengan data sekunder bulanan pada
empat tenor — satu bulan, tiga bulan, enam bulan, dan dua belas bulan. Metode
analisis yang digunakan adalah Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) untuk tenor
satu bulan, tiga bulan, dan dua belas bulan, serta Error Correction Model (ECM)
untuk tenor enam bulan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh keempat
variabel bersifat heterogen — berbeda arah dan signifikansi tergantung pada tenor
dan horizon waktu analisis. Secara simultan, keempat variabel berpengaruh
signifikan dalam jangka panjang namun tidak signifikan dalam jangka pendek. Di
antara keempat variabel, jumlah uang beredar merupakan faktor paling dominan dan
konsisten yang memengaruhi deposito mudharabah di seluruh tenor dalam jangka
panjang, sementara pengaruh variabel lainnya bersifat selektif pada tenor dan
horizon waktu tertentu. Temuan ini mengimplikasikan bahwa keputusan nasabah dalam menempatkan dana tidak dapat dijelaskan oleh satu faktor tunggal, melainkan
dipengaruhi oleh kombinasi faktor internal perbankan syariah dan kondisi
makroekonomi yang bekerja secara berbeda pada setiap segmen tenor.
Kata kunci: Deposito Mudharabah, Islamic Rate of Return, Suku Bunga Deposito,
Inflasi, Jumlah Uang Beredar, BPRS
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