Analisis Sensitivitas pada Model SIR Penyebaran COVID-19

Haniefa Atzzahra; Irma Fitria; Nashrul Millah

doi:10.30651/must.v6i2.9666

Haniefa Atzzahra ⁽¹⁾, Irma Fitria ⁽²⁾, Nashrul Millah ⁽³⁾

(1) Institut Teknologi Kalimantan, Indonesia,

(2) Institut Teknologi Kalimantan, Indonesia,

(3) Institut Teknologi Kalimantan, Indonesia

https://doi.org/10.30651/must.v6i2.9666

Issue
Vol. 6 No. 2 (2021): DECEMBER

Keywords:

analisis sensitivitas, estimasi parameter, SIR

PDF (Bahasa Indonesia)

Abstract

Wabah COVID-19 yang menjadi perhatian dunia saat ini, muncul sejak akhir tahun 2019 di Wuhan, China. Virus ini menyebar dengan sangat cepat karena transmisinya secara langsung dari manusia ke manusia. Di Indonesia, pasien yang terinfeksi COVID-19 pertama kali ditemukan pada tanggal 2 Maret 2020. Transmisi dari COVID-19 ini dapat disimulasikan menggunakan model penyebaran penyakit Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR). Setelah diperoleh nilai estimasi parameter, selanjutnya dilakukan analisis sensitivitas untuk mengetahui seberapa besar pengaruh dari parameter-parameter terhadap populasi Infected. Setelah dilakukan analisis sensitivitas diketahui bahwa parameter peluang kontak sukses atau Â dan banyaknya kontak atau Â merupakan parameter yang paling berpengaruh, karena populasi Infected akan bertambah 27,3% jika Â atau Â naik 10%. Dari model SIR ini diperoleh grafik yang jauh dari grafik data asli penyebaran COVID-19 di Indonesia.

Full text article

Generated from XML file

References

Brauer, F. & Carlos-Chavez, C. (2001). Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiologi. New York: Springer-Verlag Inc.

Chitnis, N. R. (2005). Using Mathematical Models in Controling The Spread of Malaria. Disertation, USA: The University of Arizona.

Fang, Y., Nie, Y., & Penny, M. (2020). Transmission Dynamics of the COVID-19 Outbreak and Effectiveness of Government Interventions: A Data-Driven Analysis. Journal of Medical Virology, 92(6), 645-659. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25750

Huda, A. F., Wulan, E. R., Illahi, F., & Khumaeroh, M. S. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Social Distancing pada Transmisi COVID-19 dengan Menggunakan Model SIR. Bandung: UIN Sunan Gunung Djati.

Kementrian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. (2020). [online] tersedia di https://covid19.kemkes.go.id/qna-pertanyaan-dan-jawaban-terkait-covid-19/#.XxWXcudpE2w [diakses pada tanggal 20 Juli 2020].

Laksana, A. I. (2017). Perbandingan Metode Single Moving Average dan Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Pengembangan Sistem Peramalan Penjualan Mobil Baru. Skripsi, Yogyakarta: Universitas Sanata Dharma.

Marino, S., Hogie. I. B., Ray, C. J. & Kirschner, D. E. (2008). A methodology for Performing Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in System Biology. Journal of Theoretical Biologi, 254(1), 178-196

Marsudi. (2014). â€œAnalisis Sensitivitas Model Epidemiologi HIV dengan Edukasiâ€. In Prosiding KNM XVII 2014. (p. 907-917).

SATGAS COVID-19. (2020). [online] tersedia di https://covid19.go.id/peta-sebaran [diakses pada tanggal 20 Juli, 2020]

WHO. [online] tersedia di https://www.who.int/indonesia/news/novel-coronavirus/qa-for-public [diakses pada tanggal 20 Juli, 2020]

Authors

Haniefa Atzzahra

Institut Teknologi Kalimantan

Irma Fitria

Institut Teknologi Kalimantan

irma.fitria@lecturer.itk.ac.id (Primary Contact)

Nashrul Millah

Institut Teknologi Kalimantan

Atzzahra, H., Fitria, I., & Millah, N. (2021). Analisis Sensitivitas pada Model SIR Penyebaran COVID-19. MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology, 6(2), 217–230. https://doi.org/10.30651/must.v6i2.9666

Download Citation

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under aÂ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International LicenseÂ that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published workÂ

Article Sidebar

Abstract

Full text article

References

Authors

Article Details

Similar Articles