Model Epidemik SIR pada Kasus Covid-19 di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Abstract
COVID-19 yang berasal dari virus SARS-CoV-2, telah menjadi pandemi global sejak tahun 2020 dan menjadi endemik pada awal tahun 2023. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan penyebaran COVID-19 di Provinsi Sumatera Utara dengan menggunakan model SIR (Suspected, Infected, Removed). Model SIR yang dikembangkan oleh Kermack dan McKendrik digunakan untuk membagi populasi menjadi tiga kelompok: berpotensi terinfeksi (Suspected), terinfeksi (Infected) dan pulih/meninggal (Removed). Model matematika ini telah banyak digunakan dalam studi penyebaran COVID-19. Kajian ini menggunakan data yang diperoleh dari Kementerian Kesehatan RI selama kurun waktu 1 tahun 8 bulan, terhitung sejak Januari 2022 hingga September 2022. Data tersebut meliputi jumlah kasus COVID-19 dan status pasien di Provinsi Sumatera Utara. Dengan menggunakan model SIR, dimungkinkan untuk memprediksi penyebaran penyakit COVID-19 di antara penduduk di Sumatera Utara.
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Copyright (c) 2022 Miclyael - Luge, Rahman Wahabi Hasibuan
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