Analisis Dual-Approach Valuation Saham Farmasi: Studi Empiris di Bursa Efek Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30651/jms.v10i3.26870Abstract
Saham perusahaan merupakan instrumen investasi dengan tingkat risiko yang relatif tinggi, sehingga diperlukan penilaian yang cermat terhadap nilai wajarnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi nilai wajar saham pada perusahaan subsektor farmasi dengan kapitalisasi pasar terbesar yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Penilaian dilakukan menggunakan dua pendekatan: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) dengan model Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), serta Relative Valuation (RV) dengan rasio Price to Earnings (PER) dan Price to Book Value (PBV). Ketiga metode ini dianalisis dalam tiga skenario: pesimis, moderat, dan optimis. Data yang digunakan berasal dari laporan keuangan tahunan perusahaan selama periode 2015–2019, yang menjadi dasar proyeksi kinerja untuk tahun 2020–2024. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa dengan pendekatan DCF-FCFF, seluruh saham perusahaan berada dalam kondisi undervalued di semua skenario. Sebaliknya, pendekatan RV dengan rasio PER menunjukkan kondisi overvalued pada ketiga saham. Sementara itu, pada pendekatan PBV, hanya saham KAEF yang undervalued dalam skenario pesimis; saham KLBF dan INAF tetap overvalued. Pada skenario moderat dan optimis, seluruh saham menunjukkan kondisi overvalued.
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