Analisis Dampak Fluktuasi Kurs dan Harga Batubara terhadap Pergerakan Harga Saham PT Baramulti Suksessarana Tbk
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30651/jms.v8i4.21319Abstract
Abstrak
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak perubahan Kurs Rupiah dan Harga Batu Bara terhadap pergerakan harga saham PT Baramulti Suksesarana Tbk (BSSR). Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah adalah data fluktuasi kurs rupiah, harga batubara, dan pergerkana harga saham sedangkan sampel yang akan digunakan adalah data harian fluktuasi kurs rupiah, harga batubara, dan pergerkana harga saham PT BSSR selama satu tahun terakhir (Januari 2021- Februari 2022). Data yang digunakan merupakan data skunder yang diperoleh melaui berbagi sumber resmi. Teknik analisis data dilakukan dengan bantuan Program Eviews dengan menggunkan metode Vector Autoregression/Vector Error Correction Model (VAR/VCM). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa guncangan harga batubara dunia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pergerakan harga saham BSSR dalam jangka pendek sementara pengaruh tersebut cenderung melemah dan negatif untuk jangka panjang sehingga harga batubara bisa dijadikan sebagai salah satu dasar pertimbangan utama dalam menentukan keputusan investasi saat ini pada perusahaan sektor pertambangan khususnya batubara. Sementara itu, kurs tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pergerakan harga saham BSSR khusunya jangka pendek sementara untuk jangka panjang terdapat kenaikan pengaruh meskipun tidak signifikan. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa kurs lebih sesaui digunakan sebagai dasar keputusan investasi untuk jangka panjang atau lebih dari satu tahun.
Kata Kunci : Fluktuasi Kurs, Harga Batubara, Pergerakan Harga Saham
Abstract
This research aims to determine the impact of changes in the Rupiah Exchange Rate and Coal Prices on the share price movements of PT Baramulti Suksesarana Tbk (BSSR). This study uses a quantitative approach. The population in this study is data on fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate, coal prices, and stock price movements, while the sample that will be used is daily data on fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate, coal prices, and PT BSSR share price movements during the last year (January 2021-February 2022) . The data used is secondary data obtained through sharing official sources. The data analysis technique was carried out with the help of the Eviews Program using the Vector Autoregression/Vector Error Correction Model (VAR/VCM) method. The results of this research show that world coal price shocks have a positive and significant effect on BSSR share price movements in the short term while this effect tends to be weak and negative in the long term so that coal prices can be used as one of the main considerations in determining current investment decisions in the company. mining sector, especially coal. Meanwhile, the exchange rate does not have a significant influence on BSSR share price movements, especially in the short term, while in the long term there is an increase in influence, although not significant. These results indicate that the exchange rate is more suitable for use as a basis for investment decisions for the long term or more than one year.
Keywords: Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Coal Prices, Share Price Movements
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